This is another update on WWEE. While the previous newsletters on this topic gave qualitative information, now quantitative data is in the public domain. Specifically, it is the amount of data being transfered by people using mobile devices such as a Blackberry, iPhone, computers, etc. It does not pertain to the number of cell phone voice calls. It pertain to people accessing the internet to get data and video information.
The Sunday, February 14, 2010, Charlotte Observer had an article titled “Warning! Data traffic jam ahead”. The subject of the article is the projected volume of data on mobile devices accessing the internet in the US and how infrastructure has to be added now to avoid a future logjam. Keep in mind that this same situation will also occur in other countries around the world, this is not a US only phenomenon.
Quantitative Data for the US Market:
Number of US mobile subscribers accessing the internet: 2008 = 34 million devices, 2014 = 106 million devices. This means that in 4 years, 1 in 3 people will accessing the internet in a mobile manner. My opinion, is that this is conservative and actually more people will have mobile devices.
The projected US Mobile Data Usage in Petabytes per month is shown below. Let me explain a Petabyte. Peta means 1,000 trillion, you know the number that is the size of the US deficit. A byte refers a symbol or character that is comprised of bits of data. A Petabyte is a really, really big deal.
2008 = 6
2009 = 17
2010 = 41
2011 = 91
2012 = 201
2013 = 397
This means that data growth is tripling now and doubling in the future. This means that in 4 years roughly 10 trillion bytes of data traffic will exist per minute. I think this is also conservative given my view of the number of devices that will be in use.
This is a major market move and one to be considered for investing. The constraint for all of this data is not the number of devices connecting to an antenna but rather the back-haul from the antenna to the network. For this data flow to happen, significant money, like Billions of Dollars, has to be invested in infrastructure like antennas, towers, cable, electronics, etc and the investment has to occur now.
Showing posts with label WWEE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WWEE. Show all posts
Monday, February 15, 2010
Saturday, October 10, 2009
WWEE Update and US Dollar Part 1
Last week's newsletter was on the Worldwide Wireless E-Commerce Explosion, WWEE, and that you need to participate in it. This week the Wall Street Journal had a short article that paints the picture for this country, USA. The title of the article was FCC Looks to Add to Airwaves for Wireless, perhaps you saw it. Below are some points from the article:
1) FCC looking for more ways to make more airwaves available for next-generation wireless networks, underscoring the expanding need sparked by the growing use of iPhones and similar devices.
2) Lack of airwaves available for so-called 4G networks “a looming crisis” that threaten American productivity.
3) Reallocate airwaves for wireless Internet services and speed up paperwork so new networks could be built faster.
4) FCC has approved a 3 fold increase in available spectrum in recent years but projections for data traffic show a 30 fold increase in demand, a 10 to 1 gap.
In this highly technological country we had a 30 fold increase in recent years. This means that Internet and E-Commerce is doubling each year and at a faster rate than the FCC is adding capacity. If you do the math and this doubles each year for the next 5 years, a 30 fold increases to a 960 fold increase, let's round to 1,000 fold increase. Wouldn't you call this an explosion?
A hot financial topic in the newspaper is the strength of the US Dollar. This newsletter will give an overview of the subject and the rest of the story will come next week. Newspapers are talking about how the US Dollar is falling and we want a strong US Dollar. Actually, it all depends on your perspective.
Another class of investment or trading is in currencies. Lots of people buy and sell a currency like the US Dollar, Euro, or Yen. Currency traders have a 24 hour a day, 5 days a week, job because currencies are traded around the globe on exchanges and an exchange is always open somewhere during the work week.
The best measure of the US Dollar strength is the US Dollar index that currently at about 77. This index is a composite index of all world currencies showing the relative value of the US Dollar. This year the US Dollar index has been as high as about 89 to the current low of about 77. To give a broader picture, during the last 10 years the US Dollar index has been as high as about 112 and as low as about 70. A lower number means a weaker US Dollar. It is important to state US Dollar because the term Dollar is also used by some other countries like Australia.
A widely published ratio is the US Dollar to the Euro which is currently about 1.47 US Dollar to 1 Euro or 0.68 Euro to the US Dollar. Earlier in the year the ratio was about 1.3 US Dollar to 1 Euro or 0.77 Euro to the US Dollar. Since the US Dollar has changed from about 0.77 Euro to 0.68 Euro it has weakened and why the newspaper prints about a weakening US Dollar.
Why does the US Dollar go up or down? The economic law of supply and demand rules supreme once again. As more US Dollars are printed relative to other currencies the over-supply lowers the value. When we have a US budget deficit we print money weakening the value. When we had a Federal budget surplus in the late Clinton Administration and the early Bush II administration the US Dollar index rose and was over 100. As we had a Federal budget deficit during the rest of this decade the US Dollar index declined and has been below 100. As our budget deficits grow and we print more money the value of the US Dollar is going to weaken regardless of what is printed in the newspaper.
1) FCC looking for more ways to make more airwaves available for next-generation wireless networks, underscoring the expanding need sparked by the growing use of iPhones and similar devices.
2) Lack of airwaves available for so-called 4G networks “a looming crisis” that threaten American productivity.
3) Reallocate airwaves for wireless Internet services and speed up paperwork so new networks could be built faster.
4) FCC has approved a 3 fold increase in available spectrum in recent years but projections for data traffic show a 30 fold increase in demand, a 10 to 1 gap.
In this highly technological country we had a 30 fold increase in recent years. This means that Internet and E-Commerce is doubling each year and at a faster rate than the FCC is adding capacity. If you do the math and this doubles each year for the next 5 years, a 30 fold increases to a 960 fold increase, let's round to 1,000 fold increase. Wouldn't you call this an explosion?
A hot financial topic in the newspaper is the strength of the US Dollar. This newsletter will give an overview of the subject and the rest of the story will come next week. Newspapers are talking about how the US Dollar is falling and we want a strong US Dollar. Actually, it all depends on your perspective.
Another class of investment or trading is in currencies. Lots of people buy and sell a currency like the US Dollar, Euro, or Yen. Currency traders have a 24 hour a day, 5 days a week, job because currencies are traded around the globe on exchanges and an exchange is always open somewhere during the work week.
The best measure of the US Dollar strength is the US Dollar index that currently at about 77. This index is a composite index of all world currencies showing the relative value of the US Dollar. This year the US Dollar index has been as high as about 89 to the current low of about 77. To give a broader picture, during the last 10 years the US Dollar index has been as high as about 112 and as low as about 70. A lower number means a weaker US Dollar. It is important to state US Dollar because the term Dollar is also used by some other countries like Australia.
A widely published ratio is the US Dollar to the Euro which is currently about 1.47 US Dollar to 1 Euro or 0.68 Euro to the US Dollar. Earlier in the year the ratio was about 1.3 US Dollar to 1 Euro or 0.77 Euro to the US Dollar. Since the US Dollar has changed from about 0.77 Euro to 0.68 Euro it has weakened and why the newspaper prints about a weakening US Dollar.
Why does the US Dollar go up or down? The economic law of supply and demand rules supreme once again. As more US Dollars are printed relative to other currencies the over-supply lowers the value. When we have a US budget deficit we print money weakening the value. When we had a Federal budget surplus in the late Clinton Administration and the early Bush II administration the US Dollar index rose and was over 100. As we had a Federal budget deficit during the rest of this decade the US Dollar index declined and has been below 100. As our budget deficits grow and we print more money the value of the US Dollar is going to weaken regardless of what is printed in the newspaper.
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