Saturday, February 26, 2011

Libya and Investing

This week Libya was the top economic news story and the perceived impact on our economy. The news media spread fear about higher prices and a slowing economy. While it is good for traders, it really is not significant for a longer term investor. In honor of President's Day, the last section is on 5 memorable Presidents.

Vanguard

The U.S. economy grew 2.8% in the fourth quarter, the sixth straight quarterly increase, though the pace was more modest than an earlier estimate. Less spending by fiscally strapped state and local governments was one reason for the downward revision. Consumers also spent less than initially thought. For the week ended February 25, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.7% to 1,320 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 5.3%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 17 basis points to 3.42% (for a year-to-date increase of 12 basis points).

Libya and Investing

First, I want to commend all of my clents for keeping their cool this week with all of the fear being spread by the media. I did not contact any clients because I did not agree with the gloom and doom and the volatility index indicated that this was not a significant investing event. This is a story that will fade and eventually the good news of an improving economy will prevail. If you are a trader this is a great opportunity to buy and sell stocks, if you own mutual funds this created no opportunity at all, let me explain.

When a mutual fund is bought or sold it is done at the end of the day. So when bad news comes and the stock market drops the buyer or seller get's the price at the end of the day. As good news comes and the stock market goes up the buyer or seller get's the price at the end of the day. If I would have sold the bad news and bought on the good news as an investor in mutual funds the end result would have been added cost with no benefit to you.

The bond centric and commodity centric mutual funds did well this week. These funds are owned to provide balance and stability during a crazy week. The bottom line is that an investor in mutual funds should maintain some balance and change on significant longer term events.

Information on Five Memorable Presidents

1. President John F. Kennedy — Famous for being the youngest president elected at that time and first Catholic president. He said the famous quote, “Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country.” He was the 4th president to be assassinated in office, shot in the head during a parade in Dallas, Texas. John F. Kennedy was a Democrat.
2. President Dwight D. Eisenhower — Famous for concentrated on maintaining world peace. He watched with pleasure the development of his “atoms for peace” program — the loan of American uranium to “have not” nations for peaceful purposes.
3. President Teddy Roosevelt — Famous for: With the assassination of President McKinley, Theodore Roosevelt, not quite 43, became the youngest President in the Nation’s history. He brought new excitement and power to the Presidency, as he vigorously led Congress and the American public toward progressive reforms and a strong foreign policy. He won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating the Russo-Japanese War, reached a Gentleman’s Agreement on immigration with Japan, and sent the Great White Fleet on a goodwill tour of the world.
4. President Franklin D. Roosevelt — Famous for: He undertook immediate actions to initiate his New Deal. To halt depositor panics, he closed the banks temporarily. Then he worked with a special session of Congress during the first “100 days” to pass recovery legislation which set up alphabet agencies such as the AAA (Agricultural Adjustment Administration) to support farm prices and the CCC (Civilian Conservation Corps) to employ young men.
5. President Herbert Hoover — Famous for: Herbert Clark Hoover: Graduated Stanford University (1895). Secretary of Commerce under Harding, Secretary of Commerce under Coolidge. The New York Stock Market crashed on October 29, 1929, marking the beginning of a severe economic depression that dominated the Hoover presidency. The School of Engineering and Applied Science of Columbia University in 1964, Herbert Hoover and Thomas Edison were named the two greatest engineers in U. S. History. He was the youngest member of Stanford University’s first graduating class. During their first three years in the White House, the Hoovers dined alone only three times, each time on their wedding anniversary. Hoover was the first president to donate his salary to charity. One of the most honored presidents, Hoover received 84 honourary degrees, 78 medals and awards, and the keys to dozens of cities.

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Budgets and Investing

This past week, the news was full of state and federal budget information. In particular, was the budget battle in Wisconsin. Enough people are giving the political implications of these events so I would like to cover the investing side, in particular interest rates and stock prices. First will be a section from Vanguard. At the end is a section on NBA All Star Game Facts, which is being played today.

Vangaurd

The Federal Reserve grew more confident in the strength of the U.S. economy, but not enough to pull back from its second round of quantitative easing. High unemployment remained a challenge. Rising commodity prices began to tug at the pockets of consumers and producers, but general inflation in the United States was not yet a concern. For the week ended February 18, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.0% to 1,343 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 7.2%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 5 basis points to 3.59% (for a year-to-date increase of 29 basis points).

Government Budgets and Investing

What is the big deal about all of the state and federal budgets that are being discussed in our country? Normally, this is a topic that makes people yawn except for this year. Budget exercises are kind of like going to the dentist, you know you need to do it and you never look forward to it.

The key topis this year is how to balance a budget and the implications of getting it balanced. So from an investor's point of view this is very important. At risk is the credit rating of each state and the federal government. When an organization does not act fiscally responsible, such as a business or government agency, the credit rating agencies like Moody's gives it a lower score. A lower score means that a higher risk exists for defaulting, or not paying back a loan, so the interest rate that must be paid goes up. The lower the rating the higher the interest rate.

So if these budgets are not balanced, the interest rate that is paid by the government agency on the loan that is needed to cover the shortfall goes up. As more and more money is needed the rate goes higher and higher. With higher interest rates comes a lot of negative long term consequences. Stocks do well when interest rates are low and when they are rising in a normal range. When interest rates are high stocks do very poorly.

As investors, if budgets are balanced then we are happy and invest in a normal fashion. If budgets are allowed to have growing deficits then investors need to take action and become defensive. Higher interest rates are bad for virtually all types of bonds and stocks. I am rooting for a balanced budget for each state government and the federal government, to take smaller actions now avoiding much larger actions later.

NBA All-Star Game Facts

•The first NBA All-Star Game was held in Boston in 1951.
•The NBA Rookie Challenge, a game between the best first and second year players was first held in 1994.
•The Slam Dunk Contest features the NBA's highest flyers and most dominating dunkers and was first held in 1984. Previous winners include Michael Jordan, Vince Carter, Kobe Bryant and Jason Richardson.
•The highest scoring NBA All-Star Game was in 2003 when the Western Conference beat the Eastern Conference 155 - 145 in a double-overtime scoring fest. Kevin Garnett poured in 37 points and was named the game's MVP.
•The most points scored in a game by one player is 42 points, set by Wilt Chamberlain during the 1962 NBA All-Star Game.
•Michael Jordan holds the record for most career points in NBA All-Star Games. He scored 262 points while playing in 13 NBA All-Star Games.

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Finances During Retirement

Happy Valentines Day to you and your family. This will be longer than normal and has 3 sections: Vanguard Weekly Recap, Finances During Retirement, and a section on what Love means to kids. Make sure you read the last section, it will warm your heart.

Vanguard Weekly Recap

The light slate of economic news this week dealt with rising demand. Higher oil prices and a healthier appetite for spending led the U.S. trade deficit to increase in December, as imports grew more than foreign demand for U.S. exports. Increased spending also translated to higher consumer borrowing. In international news, political unrest in Egypt continued for a third week, disrupting the country's economy and keeping its stock market closed. For the week ended February 11, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.4% to 1,329 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 5.9%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 3.64% (for a year-to-date increase of 34 basis points).

Finances During Retiremenet
Information by Marcie Geffner Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Tapping retirement accounts

For many, the biggest decisions involve when to tap investment accounts and when to collect Social Security benefits. Seniors are required to take minimum distributions from individual retirement accounts, or IRAs, and 401(k) plans, beginning the April 1 after the year in which they become 70½ years old. The first minimum distribution is 3.65 percent of the account balance; after that, the percentage increases each year.

Roth IRAs are an exception. These accounts have no required minimum distributions. Seniors usually are well-advised to tap nonqualified accounts first, IRA and 401(k) accounts next, and Roth IRAs last, Tepper says. This strategy delays the tax implications and allows the tax-advantaged investments to continue to grow for a longer period of time.

Taking Social Security

Seniors can claim Social Security benefits starting at age 62, but those benefits are reduced until the senior reaches the so-called full retirement age, based on his or her year of birth. Seniors who are unemployed or retired, either by choice or default, may want to collect Social Security as soon as they're eligible. Tepper says that's a good strategy if the senior's investments can earn an after-tax return of at least 3 percent per year. Again, the idea is to keep more money invested for future growth.

Seniors who are working may want to delay Social Security because their benefit may be reduced, depending on their current age and income, until they reach full retirement age. The break-even point at which the total Social Security benefit is about the same, whether it's taken in a smaller amount at age 62 or a larger amount at age 65, is about 10 to 12 years, Panaccione says.

3 mistakes to avoid

1) Taking out too much money too early. "Overspending early in retirement is definitely a huge mistake," Tepper says.One rule of thumb is to not spend more than 4 percent of an investment portfolio in the first year. Spending a smaller proportion can allow a portfolio to continue to grow and keep up with the rate of inflation.

2) Investing too aggressively or too conservatively. Another rule of thumb is to keep three to five years' of expenses — or more conservatively three to seven years' — in safe investments, and be slightly more aggressive with money that won't be needed for a longer time.

3) Overlooking the tax implications of IRA withdrawals. Tapping — or tapping out — an IRA too soon can radically alter a senior's tax situation. A typical miscalculation is using the money to pay off a mortgage. "Say it's a $100,000 mortgage and a $100,000 IRA," Panaccione says. "You yank out the $100,000 to pay off the mortgage, and then you've taken a $100,000 income-producing asset, which gives you tax deferral, out of circulation, and you've gotten rid of your tax break, so maybe now, you can't itemize."

Definition of Love - Out of the Mouths of Babes

A group of 4 to 8 year-old children was asked - “What does love mean?” The answers were broader and deeper than anyone could have imagined. See what you think -

“Love is what makes you smile when you're tired.” Terri - age 4.

“Love is when my mommy makes coffee for my daddy and she takes a sip before giving it to him, to make sure the taste is OK.” Danny - age 7.

“Love is when you kiss all the time. Then when you get tired of kissing, you still want to be together and you talk more. My Mommy and Daddy are like that. They look gross when they kiss.” Emily - age 8.

“Love is what's in the room with you at Christmas if you stop opening presents and listen.” Bobby - age 7.

“If you want to learn to love better, you should start with somebody who you hate.” Nikka - age 6.

“Love is when you tell a guy you like his shirt, and then he wears it everyday.” Noelle - age 7.

”Love is like a little old woman and a little old man who are still friends even after they know each other real well.” Tommy - age 6.

“During my piano recital, I was on a stage and I was scared. I looked at all the people watching me and saw my daddy waving and smiling. He was the only one doing that. I wasn't scared anymore.” Cindy - age 8.

“My mommy loves me more than anybody. You don't see anyone else kissing me to sleep at night.” Clare - age 6.

“Love is when Mommy gives Daddy the best piece of chicken.” Elaine-age 5.

“Love is when Mommy sees Daddy smelly and sweaty and still says he is handsomer than Robert Redford.” Chris - age 7.

“Love is when your puppy licks your face even after you left him alone all day.” Mary Ann - age 4.

“I know my older sister loves me because she gives me all her old clothes and has to go out and buy new ones.” Lauren - age 4.

“When you love somebody, your eyelashes go up and down and little stars come out of you.” Karen - age 7.

“You really shouldn't say I love you unless you mean it. But if you mean it, you should say it a lot cause people forget.” Jessica - age 8.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

Momentum Investing

This covers the topic of something that has been in the news lately, momentum investing. The first section is the Vanguard weekly recap. The last section is part of an article on habits of happy families, I hope you find it insightful.

Vanguard Weekly Recap
The jobs picture was mixed this week, while the Fed chairman punctuated employment's prominence in any economic recovery. January payrolls increased far less than forecast, but unemployment fell to its lowest level in nearly 2 years. Other indicators were positive, with increases in consumer spending, manufacturing and factory orders, the service sector, and productivity. For the week ended February 4, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.7% to 1,310.87 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 4.4%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased 32 basis points to 3.68% (for a year-to-date increase of 38 basis points).

Avoiding Momentum Investing

This past week on CNBC's Mad Money the topic of charting stock price and buying a stock if is goes above a certain price was discussed. This can best be described as momentum investing or when a stock has an upward momentum you want to ride the momentum higher. This strategy comes out whenever the stock market is going up. I say please do not use this strategy when making an investment decision instead have a strategy and understand why you make the investment and when to sell it.

Momentum investing is the cause of a bubble, remember the internet bubble. Sometimes this is called building castles in the air or the biggest fool theory. The idea is that if a price goes higher above a certain level the stock must be more valuable therefore it should be bought. So the stock keeps going higher only based upon momentum because it is believed that some fool will come along later that will pay an even higher price. The last person to buy just before the bottom drops is the biggest fool. Being the biggest fool is very expensive.

Momentum investing may be a good strategy for an active investor that is looking to hold something for a short time and maintains price levels. For long term performance, the objective is to buy low and sell high and to understand the fundamental reasons for making an investment.

5 Habits of Happy Families
By Barbara Rowley

Give Thanks -- No Matter What
Research consistently finds that regularly expressing gratitude is good for our overall well-being: People who do so are healthier, more successful at reaching their goals, more optimistic, and more inclined to help others. But what if your family is struggling, say with a job loss, and no one is feeling like they have much to be thankful for?

Seek Out Satisfaction in Your Choices
This advice goes to the heart of a key finding of happiness research: It's important to learn to be content with how our decisions turn out. My children's preschool teacher, Joyce Drolette of Bozeman, MT, sent the girls home repeating what turns out to be a powerful mantra for happiness: "You get what you get and you don't throw a fit."

Lose Yourself in the Moment
Okay, not every moment. But research indicates that happy people focus on moments of joy: those in the present, the past, and even the ones possible in the future.

Spread Out The Joy
Your kids may constantly bug you for things they want. But studies consistently show that having everything one desires is no recipe for happiness. In fact, researchers have found that, given a choice, people will spread out rewards rather than receiving them all at once. They intuitively go about creating the contrast we all need in order to see our good fortune more clearly.

Focus On Your Circle
In an economic time when so many are struggling to get by, it's easy to fantasize that a little more wealth or success is the key to greater joy. So perhaps there is no better time for this reminder: All the studies on the subject show that the key and consistent element in the lives of very happy people is close personal relationships. Period.