This week was a little wild with fluctuations in commodity prices. This briefly talks about the correlation between these 3 types of assets. The beginning section is a weekly recap from Vanguard. The final section gives some trivia about the human body.
I do want to mention the Relay for Life event on June 3rd and 4th to raise money for the American Cancer Society. This week, 3 more people became sponsors which is a wonderful thing and I do a 25% match to their donations. Please join the list, we all know way too many people impacted by cancer. If you want to make a donation let me know and if it is based upon distance, I plan on walking at least 40 miles.
Vanguard
Steep gasoline prices impacted key indicators this week as major sectors of the economy felt the squeeze of high fuel costs. Prices paid by producers and consumers rose at their fastest 12-month clip in more than two years while retailers also endured the impact of high energy costs. Economists are thus keeping a sharp eye on inflation, though upward pressure shows some signs of easing. For the week ended May 13, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.2% to 1,338 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 7.1%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1 basis point to 3.18% (for a year-to-date drop of 12 basis points).
Stocks, Long Term Bonds, and Commodities
These 3 asset classes represent most things that impact our day to day lives. Long term bond rates impact lending rates, like mortgages. Commodities impact us at the pump, grocery store, etc. Stocks impact the average investor that invests in a stock or a mutual fund. So the question is does their performance relate and can it be correlated? The answer is that they are loosely related and a correlation factor can be calculated which changes with time.
Generally speaking, in a growing economy stock prices rise, long term bond rates rise (price drops), and commodity prices rise. The reason is that corporations will grow giving better profits and allowing for hiring of more people. Commodity prices rise due to higher demand from companies and people who have more money. Long term bond rates rise as investors sell long term treasury bonds to purchase stocks and commodities.
Generally speaking, in a slowing economy the opposite happens. Commodities are traded on exchanges around the world and people invest in them by buying them directly, purchasing stock in a company, or purchasing a mutual fund/ETF. Since commodities are traded worldwide the value of a currency will impact the prices. This means if the value of the US Dollar declines 10% that the cost of commodities that we import will increase by 10%, another reason to solve our Federal debt problem.
This relationship breaks down when commodity prices get so high that it impacts the ability for a company to make a profit or us consumers to purchase day to day items. Normally, when things act wild it means that an investment class is at a resistance level. This suggests that the rise in commodity prices has peaked for now and any talk of commodity prices continuing to rise this year, such as gas prices over $5/gallon, does not make much sense to me. Longer term, higher commodity prices make sense with an improving global economy and our growing Federal debt.
If you are concerned about having to pay higher prices at the pump or in the store own a mutual fund that invests in commodities. If commodity prices rise you make money to cover the added expense. If commodity prices fall you have more money in your pocket. Some food for thought on how to look at this issue from both sides.
The Amazing Human Body
• There are 230 joints in the human body.
• The average length of arteries, capillaries and veins in the human body is 62,000 miles.
• It has been medically proven that laughter helps control pain, lower blood pressure and relieve stress.
• Most able people will walk 115,000 miles in their life-time – or around the world 4 ½ times.
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Happy Mother's Day - Funding Her Retirement Account
First, let me wish you a Happy Mother's Day. The last section gives some trivia information for this special day. The first section is from Vanguard giving a recap of last week's events. In the middle is a short section on the importance of funding a retirement account for a wife or mom.
Vanguard Weekly Recap
Two reports issued this week offered contrasting (and somewhat contradictory) assessments of the unemployment situation. On the positive side, the number of payroll jobs created in April was surprisingly high. The overall unemployment rate, however, inched upward in April instead of staying flat, as had been expected. The week's other reports painted a mixed, but generally encouraging, picture. For the week ended May 6, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.7% to 1,340 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 7.2%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 13 basis points to 3.19% (for a year-to-date decrease of 11 basis points).
Funding Her Retirement Account
This is my opinion that it is important to fund the retirement account for your wife or mom. A view that has existed is that only the primary wage earner should have a retirement account. My view is that it is important for every adult to have a retirement account for financial and self sufficiency reasons.
My observations is that a person who enters retirement with money in an account has a greater sense of control for the future. Also it makes good sense financially to fund an IRA for both spouses as this can reduce the current tax burden. In the end you reduce the tax burden, have more resources during retirement, and give her a sense of security during retirement, a triple play.
Mother's Day Trivia
One of the early calls to celebrate a Mother's Day in the United States was the "Mother's Day Proclamation" by Julia Ward Howe. Written in 1870, it was a pacifist reaction to the carnage of the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War. The Proclamation was tied to Howe's feminist belief that women had a responsibility to shape their societies at the political level.
In the years after the Mother's Day Proclamation, Ann Jarvis founded five Mothers' Day Work Clubs to improve sanitary and health conditions. In 1907, two years after Ann Jarvis' death, her daughter Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother and began a campaign to make "Mother's Day" a recognized holiday in the US. Although she was successful in 1914, she was already disappointed with its commericalization by the 1920s.
In 1912, Anna Jarvis trademarked the phrases "second Sunday in May" and "Mother's Day", and created the Mother's Day International Association."She was specific about the location of the apostrophe; it was to be a singular possessive, for each family to honour their mother, not a plural possessive commemorating all mothers in the world." This is also the spelling used by U.S. President Woodrow Wilson in the law making official the holiday in the U.S., by the U.S. Congress on bills, and by other U.S. presidents on their declarations.
Vanguard Weekly Recap
Two reports issued this week offered contrasting (and somewhat contradictory) assessments of the unemployment situation. On the positive side, the number of payroll jobs created in April was surprisingly high. The overall unemployment rate, however, inched upward in April instead of staying flat, as had been expected. The week's other reports painted a mixed, but generally encouraging, picture. For the week ended May 6, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.7% to 1,340 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 7.2%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 13 basis points to 3.19% (for a year-to-date decrease of 11 basis points).
Funding Her Retirement Account
This is my opinion that it is important to fund the retirement account for your wife or mom. A view that has existed is that only the primary wage earner should have a retirement account. My view is that it is important for every adult to have a retirement account for financial and self sufficiency reasons.
My observations is that a person who enters retirement with money in an account has a greater sense of control for the future. Also it makes good sense financially to fund an IRA for both spouses as this can reduce the current tax burden. In the end you reduce the tax burden, have more resources during retirement, and give her a sense of security during retirement, a triple play.
Mother's Day Trivia
One of the early calls to celebrate a Mother's Day in the United States was the "Mother's Day Proclamation" by Julia Ward Howe. Written in 1870, it was a pacifist reaction to the carnage of the American Civil War and the Franco-Prussian War. The Proclamation was tied to Howe's feminist belief that women had a responsibility to shape their societies at the political level.
In the years after the Mother's Day Proclamation, Ann Jarvis founded five Mothers' Day Work Clubs to improve sanitary and health conditions. In 1907, two years after Ann Jarvis' death, her daughter Anna Jarvis held a memorial for her mother and began a campaign to make "Mother's Day" a recognized holiday in the US. Although she was successful in 1914, she was already disappointed with its commericalization by the 1920s.
In 1912, Anna Jarvis trademarked the phrases "second Sunday in May" and "Mother's Day", and created the Mother's Day International Association."She was specific about the location of the apostrophe; it was to be a singular possessive, for each family to honour their mother, not a plural possessive commemorating all mothers in the world." This is also the spelling used by U.S. President Woodrow Wilson in the law making official the holiday in the U.S., by the U.S. Congress on bills, and by other U.S. presidents on their declarations.
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Sell in May and Go Away
The topic is the saying Sell in May and Go Away. The first section is from Vanguard.
Vanguard
The U.S. is on the mend from the recession and financial crisis, but while the repairs are evident, the workers aren't yet ready to pack their tools and take down the scaffolding. The economic situation is serious enough that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held the first-ever news conference for the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) in addition to releasing a customary statement. Overall, the economic news this week was mixed. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than it did in the fourth quarter of 2010. Consumer confidence and the housing market are slowly improving, but still not at levels considered healthy. The stock market surged on good news and shrugged off the bad. For the week ended April 29, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 1,364 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 9.1%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased 10 basis points to 3.32% (for a year-to-date increase of 2 basis points).
Sell in May and Go Away
This is a saying for investors in stocks to sell all stocks on May 1st and repurchase them at the end of September to avoid the summer lull in the stock market. It is a saying to tell people how to time the market. If you look at the average return for these months compared to other months it does suggest that the stock market is calmer during these 5 months.
However, if you analyze the monthly return data for these month you will find that the variability is greater than the average return. This means statistically this saying has no real value and this saying should be avoided. The best thing to do is invest in stocks as the economy is growing and ignore this saying.
Vanguard
The U.S. is on the mend from the recession and financial crisis, but while the repairs are evident, the workers aren't yet ready to pack their tools and take down the scaffolding. The economic situation is serious enough that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held the first-ever news conference for the Federal Market Open Committee (FOMC) in addition to releasing a customary statement. Overall, the economic news this week was mixed. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than it did in the fourth quarter of 2010. Consumer confidence and the housing market are slowly improving, but still not at levels considered healthy. The stock market surged on good news and shrugged off the bad. For the week ended April 29, the S&P 500 Index rose 2.0% to 1,364 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 9.1%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note decreased 10 basis points to 3.32% (for a year-to-date increase of 2 basis points).
Sell in May and Go Away
This is a saying for investors in stocks to sell all stocks on May 1st and repurchase them at the end of September to avoid the summer lull in the stock market. It is a saying to tell people how to time the market. If you look at the average return for these months compared to other months it does suggest that the stock market is calmer during these 5 months.
However, if you analyze the monthly return data for these month you will find that the variability is greater than the average return. This means statistically this saying has no real value and this saying should be avoided. The best thing to do is invest in stocks as the economy is growing and ignore this saying.
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Happy Easter - Social Security Strategy
Happy Easter to you and your family on this special day. This will briefly discuss the principles for developing a strategy of when to take Social Security benefits. Information from Vanguard is at the beginning. At the end are some Easter quotes.
Vanguard
Although a credit-rating agency's warning about the outlook for the U.S. government's debt burden dominated headlines this week, reports on the economy were more optimistic. The housing market, though weak, showed some improvement, and leading economic indicators showed an economic recovery that remains on track. For the week ended April 21, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.3% to 1,337 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 6.9%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 3.40% (for a year-to-date increase of 10 basis points).
Social Security Strategy
Some of the biggest decisions that a person or couple can make is how and when to take Social Security benefits. Unfortunately, little planning seems to be given to optimizing these benefits. Recently, I had lunch with a friend and client to discuss a strategy which is why I am writing about it today. Yes, Social Security will be around for a long time. A strategy should be developed around who is the primary and who is the secondary recipient and the age of the recipient.
The concept is to take Social Security benefits as soon as you can to reduce debt, like car loans and your mortgage. For the average person, it is important to have no debt in retirement. For a couple, the idea is to shift income to a spouse while still contributing and growing future benefits.
Example 1: If you own a business, you can reduce your income from the business and shift it to your spouse. In this manner you can collect benefits and your spouse can build-up their Social Security benefit while having more total income as a couple.
Example 2: If the situation is a working and getting paid spouse, who is the primary recipient, and a working but not getting paid spouse, who is the secondary recipient. The strategy is for the secondary recipient to collect as soon as possible and for the primary recipient to work as long as possible. In this manner the total income goes up and with the primary recipient working the annual amount will continue to increase.
Bottom Line: If you are going to be applying for Social Security benefits soon, please contact me so that we can discuss a strategy.
Easter Quotes
The resurrection gives my life meaning and direction and the opportunity to start over no matter what my circumstances. ~Robert Flatt
The joyful news that He is risen does not change the contemporary world. Still before us lie work, discipline, sacrifice. But the fact of Easter gives us the spiritual power to do the work, accept the discipline, and make the sacrifice. ~Henry Knox Sherrill
Easter is the demonstration of God that life is essentially spiritual and timeless. ~Charles M. Crowe
Let every man and woman count himself immortal. Let him catch the revelation of Jesus in his resurrection. Let him say not merely, "Christ is risen," but "I shall rise." ~Phillips Brooks
On Easter Day the veil between time and eternity thins to gossamer. ~Douglas Horton
Easter spells out beauty, the rare beauty of new life. ~S.D. Gordon
Where man sees but withered leaves, God sees sweet flowers growing. ~Albert Laighton
But from this earth, this grave, this dust, My God shall raise me up, I trust. ~Walter Raleigh
He takes men out of time and makes them feel eternity. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson
For I remember it is Easter morn, And life and love and peace are all new born. ~Alice Freeman Palmer
We live and die; Christ died and lived! ~John Stott
Those have a short Lent, who owe money to be paid at Easter. ~Benjamin Franklin
Let the resurrection joy lift us from loneliness and weakness and despair to strength and beauty and happiness. ~Floyd W. Tomkins
And he departed from our sight that we might return to our heart, and there find Him. For He departed, and behold, He is here. ~St Augustine
The story of Easter is the story of God's wonderful window of divine surprise. ~Carl Knudsen
Our Lord has written the promise of the resurrection, not in books alone, but in every leaf in spring-time. ~Martin Luther
Well pleaseth me the sweet time of Easter
That maketh the leaf and the flower come out. ~Bertran de Born
Easter tells us that life is to be interpreted not simply in terms of things but in terms of ideals. ~Charles M. Crowe
Vanguard
Although a credit-rating agency's warning about the outlook for the U.S. government's debt burden dominated headlines this week, reports on the economy were more optimistic. The housing market, though weak, showed some improvement, and leading economic indicators showed an economic recovery that remains on track. For the week ended April 21, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.3% to 1,337 (for a year-to-date total return—including price change plus dividends—of about 6.9%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 3.40% (for a year-to-date increase of 10 basis points).
Social Security Strategy
Some of the biggest decisions that a person or couple can make is how and when to take Social Security benefits. Unfortunately, little planning seems to be given to optimizing these benefits. Recently, I had lunch with a friend and client to discuss a strategy which is why I am writing about it today. Yes, Social Security will be around for a long time. A strategy should be developed around who is the primary and who is the secondary recipient and the age of the recipient.
The concept is to take Social Security benefits as soon as you can to reduce debt, like car loans and your mortgage. For the average person, it is important to have no debt in retirement. For a couple, the idea is to shift income to a spouse while still contributing and growing future benefits.
Example 1: If you own a business, you can reduce your income from the business and shift it to your spouse. In this manner you can collect benefits and your spouse can build-up their Social Security benefit while having more total income as a couple.
Example 2: If the situation is a working and getting paid spouse, who is the primary recipient, and a working but not getting paid spouse, who is the secondary recipient. The strategy is for the secondary recipient to collect as soon as possible and for the primary recipient to work as long as possible. In this manner the total income goes up and with the primary recipient working the annual amount will continue to increase.
Bottom Line: If you are going to be applying for Social Security benefits soon, please contact me so that we can discuss a strategy.
Easter Quotes
The resurrection gives my life meaning and direction and the opportunity to start over no matter what my circumstances. ~Robert Flatt
The joyful news that He is risen does not change the contemporary world. Still before us lie work, discipline, sacrifice. But the fact of Easter gives us the spiritual power to do the work, accept the discipline, and make the sacrifice. ~Henry Knox Sherrill
Easter is the demonstration of God that life is essentially spiritual and timeless. ~Charles M. Crowe
Let every man and woman count himself immortal. Let him catch the revelation of Jesus in his resurrection. Let him say not merely, "Christ is risen," but "I shall rise." ~Phillips Brooks
On Easter Day the veil between time and eternity thins to gossamer. ~Douglas Horton
Easter spells out beauty, the rare beauty of new life. ~S.D. Gordon
Where man sees but withered leaves, God sees sweet flowers growing. ~Albert Laighton
But from this earth, this grave, this dust, My God shall raise me up, I trust. ~Walter Raleigh
He takes men out of time and makes them feel eternity. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson
For I remember it is Easter morn, And life and love and peace are all new born. ~Alice Freeman Palmer
We live and die; Christ died and lived! ~John Stott
Those have a short Lent, who owe money to be paid at Easter. ~Benjamin Franklin
Let the resurrection joy lift us from loneliness and weakness and despair to strength and beauty and happiness. ~Floyd W. Tomkins
And he departed from our sight that we might return to our heart, and there find Him. For He departed, and behold, He is here. ~St Augustine
The story of Easter is the story of God's wonderful window of divine surprise. ~Carl Knudsen
Our Lord has written the promise of the resurrection, not in books alone, but in every leaf in spring-time. ~Martin Luther
Well pleaseth me the sweet time of Easter
That maketh the leaf and the flower come out. ~Bertran de Born
Easter tells us that life is to be interpreted not simply in terms of things but in terms of ideals. ~Charles M. Crowe
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Budget Battle - Become More Self Sufficient
This week the news was on the budget battle between the GOP and the Obama Administration. The question is what does this mean for you. The first section is from Vanguard. The last section is security tips.
Vanguard
The U.S. economic engine continues to chug along at a moderate pace, with the latest data showing strong industrial production, reasonable sales growth, and an uptick in inflation. For the week ended April 15, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.6% to 1,320 (for a year-to-date total return, including price change plus dividends, of about 5.5%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 16 basis points to 3.43% (for a year-to-date increase of 13 basis points).
Budget Battle
All of the news media last week was on the Paul Ryan budget plan and the Obama Administration buget plan. Experts will tell all of us what each one means and give us their spin. What is most important to me is what is similar in both plans rather than what is different. We have both political parties talking about cutting spending, aka benefits.
The most important point in both plans is a reduction in future Medicare and Medicaid benefits. This means that future retirement benefits, Medicare part B & D, are going to be reduced. The bottom line is that in the future we all need to be more self sufficient. Ask yourself a simple question, can a government that is going bankrupt really afford to maintain Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits?
The bottom line: If you do not have a retirement plan start one. If you already have a plan add to it. You will thank yourself later.
SECURITY TIPS
Sources: Convicted burglars in North Carolina, Oregon, California, and Kentucky ; security consultant Chris McGoey, who runshttp://www.crimedoctor.com/and Richard T. Wright, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, who interviewed 105 burglars for his book Burglars on the Job.
THIRTEEN THINGS YOUR BURGLAR WON'T TELL YOU
1. Of course I look familiar. I was here just last week cleaning your carpets, painting your shutters, or delivering your new refrigerator.
2. Hey, thanks for letting me use the bathroom when I was working in your yard last week. While I was in there, I unlatched the back window to make my return a little easier.
3. Love those flowers. That tells me you have taste... and taste means there are nice things inside. Those yard toys your kids leave out always make me wonder what type of gaming system they have.
4. Yes, I really do look for newspapers piled up on the driveway. And I might leave a pizza flyer in your front door to see how long it takes you to remove it..
5. If it snows while you're out of town, get a neighbor to create car and foot tracks into the house. Virgin drifts in the driveway are a dead giveaway.
6. If decorative glass is part of your front entrance, don't let your alarm company install the control pad where I can see if it's set. That makes it too easy.
7. A good security company alarms the window over the sink. And the windows on the second floor, which often access the master bedroom - and your jewelry. It's not a bad idea to put motion detectors up there too.
8. It's raining, you're fumbling with your umbrella, and you forget to lock your door - understandable. But understand this: I don't take a day off because of bad weather.
9. I always knock first. If you answer, I'll ask for directions somewhere or offer to clean your gutters. (Don't take me up on it.)
10. Do you really think I won't look in your sock drawer? I always check dresser drawers, the bedside table, and the medicine cabinet.
11. Here's a helpful hint: I almost never go into kids' rooms.
12. You're right: I won't have enough time to break into that safe where you keep your valuables. But if it's not bolted down, I'll take it with me.
13. A loud TV or radio can be a better deterrent than the best alarm system. If you're reluctant to leave your TV on while you're out of town, you can buy a $35 device that works on a timer and simulates the flickering glow of a real television. (Find it athttp://www.faketv.com/)
8 MORE THINGS A BURGLAR WON'T TELL YOU:
1. Sometimes, I carry a clipboard. Sometimes, I dress like a lawn guy and carry a rake. I do my best to never, ever look like a crook.
2. The two things I hate most: loud dogs and nosy neighbors.
3. I'll break a window to get in, even if it makes a little noise. If your neighbor hears one loud sound, he'll stop what he's doing and wait to hear it again... If he doesn't hear it again, he'll just go back to what he was doing. It's human nature.
4. I'm not complaining, but why would you pay all that money for a fancy alarm system and leave your house without setting it?
5. I love looking in your windows. I'm looking for signs that you're home, and for flat screen TVs or gaming systems I'd like. I'll drive or walk through your neighborhood at night, before you close the blinds, just to pick my targets.
6. Avoid announcing your vacation on your Facebook page. It's easier than you think to look up your address.
7. To you, leaving that window open just a crack during the day is a way to let in a little fresh air. To me, it's an invitation.
8. If you don't answer when I knock, I try the door. Occasionally, I hit the jackpot and walk right in.
Vanguard
The U.S. economic engine continues to chug along at a moderate pace, with the latest data showing strong industrial production, reasonable sales growth, and an uptick in inflation. For the week ended April 15, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.6% to 1,320 (for a year-to-date total return, including price change plus dividends, of about 5.5%). The yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 16 basis points to 3.43% (for a year-to-date increase of 13 basis points).
Budget Battle
All of the news media last week was on the Paul Ryan budget plan and the Obama Administration buget plan. Experts will tell all of us what each one means and give us their spin. What is most important to me is what is similar in both plans rather than what is different. We have both political parties talking about cutting spending, aka benefits.
The most important point in both plans is a reduction in future Medicare and Medicaid benefits. This means that future retirement benefits, Medicare part B & D, are going to be reduced. The bottom line is that in the future we all need to be more self sufficient. Ask yourself a simple question, can a government that is going bankrupt really afford to maintain Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits?
The bottom line: If you do not have a retirement plan start one. If you already have a plan add to it. You will thank yourself later.
SECURITY TIPS
Sources: Convicted burglars in North Carolina, Oregon, California, and Kentucky ; security consultant Chris McGoey, who runshttp://www.crimedoctor.com/and Richard T. Wright, a criminology professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, who interviewed 105 burglars for his book Burglars on the Job.
THIRTEEN THINGS YOUR BURGLAR WON'T TELL YOU
1. Of course I look familiar. I was here just last week cleaning your carpets, painting your shutters, or delivering your new refrigerator.
2. Hey, thanks for letting me use the bathroom when I was working in your yard last week. While I was in there, I unlatched the back window to make my return a little easier.
3. Love those flowers. That tells me you have taste... and taste means there are nice things inside. Those yard toys your kids leave out always make me wonder what type of gaming system they have.
4. Yes, I really do look for newspapers piled up on the driveway. And I might leave a pizza flyer in your front door to see how long it takes you to remove it..
5. If it snows while you're out of town, get a neighbor to create car and foot tracks into the house. Virgin drifts in the driveway are a dead giveaway.
6. If decorative glass is part of your front entrance, don't let your alarm company install the control pad where I can see if it's set. That makes it too easy.
7. A good security company alarms the window over the sink. And the windows on the second floor, which often access the master bedroom - and your jewelry. It's not a bad idea to put motion detectors up there too.
8. It's raining, you're fumbling with your umbrella, and you forget to lock your door - understandable. But understand this: I don't take a day off because of bad weather.
9. I always knock first. If you answer, I'll ask for directions somewhere or offer to clean your gutters. (Don't take me up on it.)
10. Do you really think I won't look in your sock drawer? I always check dresser drawers, the bedside table, and the medicine cabinet.
11. Here's a helpful hint: I almost never go into kids' rooms.
12. You're right: I won't have enough time to break into that safe where you keep your valuables. But if it's not bolted down, I'll take it with me.
13. A loud TV or radio can be a better deterrent than the best alarm system. If you're reluctant to leave your TV on while you're out of town, you can buy a $35 device that works on a timer and simulates the flickering glow of a real television. (Find it athttp://www.faketv.com/)
8 MORE THINGS A BURGLAR WON'T TELL YOU:
1. Sometimes, I carry a clipboard. Sometimes, I dress like a lawn guy and carry a rake. I do my best to never, ever look like a crook.
2. The two things I hate most: loud dogs and nosy neighbors.
3. I'll break a window to get in, even if it makes a little noise. If your neighbor hears one loud sound, he'll stop what he's doing and wait to hear it again... If he doesn't hear it again, he'll just go back to what he was doing. It's human nature.
4. I'm not complaining, but why would you pay all that money for a fancy alarm system and leave your house without setting it?
5. I love looking in your windows. I'm looking for signs that you're home, and for flat screen TVs or gaming systems I'd like. I'll drive or walk through your neighborhood at night, before you close the blinds, just to pick my targets.
6. Avoid announcing your vacation on your Facebook page. It's easier than you think to look up your address.
7. To you, leaving that window open just a crack during the day is a way to let in a little fresh air. To me, it's an invitation.
8. If you don't answer when I knock, I try the door. Occasionally, I hit the jackpot and walk right in.
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